1
As we go to publish this outlook, gold has clearly been given a lift from geopolitical stress. The war between Israel and Gaza has driven many to search for safe-haven assets and gold is a top contender. However, in the weeks leading to this publication, gold was getting flanked by the twin headwinds of an appreciating US Dollar and a bond sell-off. Gold held relatively well against such pressures but began to wilt, with the 50-day moving average (DMA) price falling below the 200-dma toward the end of September. That is what technical analysts call a “death-cross”. However, despite its ominous name, that technical marker often signifies a new base. And true to that, gold has rebounded significantly, despite those bond and currency headwinds intensifying. While we don’t know how prolonged or severe the war will be, destabilisation in the Middle East serves as a reminder that geopolitical, financial or economic stress can flare up at any moment and the best time to have an ‘insurance asset’ is before the event takes place. Gold is thus a valuable strategic asset. While institutional demand for the metal has been muted for months, retail demand, especially in China and Turkey, is very strong. Central banks have also been very active in the gold markets this year and we don’t expect that trend to subside. Although demand in those pockets maybe seems like a reaction to localised concerns, we believe that globally, institutional investors are likely to be increasingly concerned about global risks – geopolitical and financial – and seek more hedging tools. We acknowledge that the fight for institutional investor attention is going be difficult when defensive assets like US Treasuries are proving a yield (to maturity) of over 5% on the 2-year and close to 5% on the 10-year, compared the zero-yielding asset that is gold. However, gold has proven to be a very effective hedge against financial, geopolitical, and inflationary risks. While many thought that inflationary risks were under control a few weeks ago, a resurge in energy prices has led many to question that assumption (and once again should support the demand for hedging instruments).
Gold is also viewed as a ‘safe-haven’ asset, meaning that during periods of economic uncertainty or heightened geopolitical risk, investors have historically turned to the precious metal for protection, pushing its price up. As such, gold can act like a form of portfolio insurance and help provide downside protection during market turmoil. Our analysis shows that when the Geopolitical Risk (GPR Index) has risen 1 standard deviation above its historic average (indicating heightened geopolitical tension), gold has risen 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average, while the S&P 500 Equity Index has fallen 8.6% y-o-y in those months . Figure 1 shows how gold has performed after a range of key financial and geopolitical events.
Geopolitics and gold
Figure 1: Gold’s performance after financial and geopolitical events
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. January 1971 to October 2023. Gold is based on Bloomberg spot prices and Equities are based on the S&P 500 Index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Gold Outlook to Q3 2024
November 2023
Select language below to download PDF
Based on annual growth data from January 1986 to September 2023. Gold based on spot prices from Bloomberg, S&P 500 data from Bloomberg and Geopolitical Risk (GPR Index) from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
Event date
Gold Price Change 1 year forward
20/10/2009
Greece government deficit announcement
26.5%
4.4%
22.1%
15/09/2008
Global financial crisis
31.6%
-12.7%
44.3%
11/09/2001
9/11 terrorist attack
16.9%
-15.1%
32.0%
11/03/2000
Dotcom bubble
-6.0%
-17.5%
11.5%
02/08/1990
Desert Storm (First Gulf War)
-3.5%
-2.9%
-0.5%
We stress that we don’t know how long or severe the current turbulence in the Middle East will be, but historically gold has served a valuable hedging tool.
World Equities Price Change 1 year forward
Relative gold outperformance
Junk bond crash
Black Monday
Nixon's resignation
Yom Kippur War
13/10/1989
19/10/1987
09/08/1974
06/10/1973
6.9%
-11.6%
14.9%
47.4%
-16.0%
-0.7%
-42.0%
22.9%
-10.8%
10.5%
89.4%
Bear case
Bull case
Siegel case
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Consensus
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Lacus sed viverra tellus in hac. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames. Diam maecenas ultricies mi eget mauris pharetra et. Purus in mollis nunc sed id semper risus. Etiam dignissim diam quis enim lobortis scelerisque fermentum dui. In est ante in nibh mauris cursus mattis molestie a. Malesuada fames ac turpis egestas integer eget. Sed risus ultricies tristique nulla aliquet enim tortor at auctor. Magna eget est lorem ipsum. Suspendisse faucibus interdum posuere lorem ipsum dolor. Quis lectus nulla at volutpat diam ut. Tortor vitae purus faucibus ornare suspendisse sed nisi lacus. Mattis rhoncus urna neque viverra justo. Vulputate eu scelerisque felis imperdiet proin fermentum leo vel. Aliquet nec ullamcorper sit amet risus nullam eget. Suscipit tellus mauris a diam maecenas sed. Vehicula ipsum a arcu cursus vitae congue mauris. Faucibus scelerisque eleifend donec pretium vulputate sapien. Quam viverra orci sagittis eu volutpat odio. In pellentesque massa placerat duis. Nibh sed pulvinar proin gravida hendrerit lectus. In arcu cursus euismod quis viverra nibh cras pulvinar. Morbi quis commodo odio aenean sed adipiscing diam. Erat pellentesque adipiscing commodo elit at imperdiet dui accumsan. Sit amet aliquam id diam maecenas ultricies. Purus in mollis nunc sed id semper risus in hendrerit. Id leo in vitae turpis massa. Vitae ultricies leo integer malesuada nunc vel. Fringilla urna porttitor rhoncus dolor purus.
Source: WisdomTree, The Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Data from January 1962 to May 2023, with forecasts extending to May 2024. NBER = National Bureau of Economic Research. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Figure 2: Gold vs. real rates (Treasury inflation-protected securities yield)
Source: WisdomTree, World Gold Council, Metal Focus, GFMS. January 1971 to August 2023. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Bull
Bear
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Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
0.0%
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00.0
000k
US$0000/oz
Siegel
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Markets are expecting Federal Reserve (Fed) policy interest rates to be ‘higher for longer’. In contrast to most rate cycles, when cuts start to come into play shortly after the last hike, bond markets are expecting a long pause at the top. That has driven 10-year nominal Treasury yields to the highest level since 2007 and real yields to their highest since 2008. Gold, however, is holding its own, with the yellow metal continuing to defy the historic real yield-gold relationships.
Bond markets and gold
In past editions of our Gold Outlook, we have commented on bond yield curve inversions (10-year yields below 2-year yields) and their predictive power of recessions. Gold tends to perform strongly in recessions. The lag between an inversion and a recession can be long and usually more than a year. We are at least 15 months into the current inversion, and we are not yet in a recession. However, markets are jittery and expressing anxiety about what is to come. In recent weeks, the yield curve has become less inverted. However, that shouldn’t be interpreted as a positive sign for the economy. Firstly, historically we have seen yield curve inversion usually unwind around the time a recession starts. Secondly in the past, most dis-inversions have occurred as a result of shorter yields (2-year yields) declining, in an event called “bull-steepening”. Right now, we are seeing the dis-inversion due to longer yields (10-year yields) rising. This “bear steepening” from an inverted curve is not very common. The very few past examples don’t offer us good insights into what that means for the economy or gold.
After hitting an all-time high in 2022, central bank demand for gold has maintained strong momentum. Figure 3 shows annual official sector gold buying since 1971 and cumulative purchases in the first eight months of 2023. Between March and May 2023, Turkey’s central bank was selling gold into the domestic public markets to satisfy strong bar, coin and jewellery demand following a temporary partial ban on gold bullion imports. That ban was put in place to soften the economic blow from the earthquake in February 2023. Since the import ban’s reversal, the Turkish central bank has resumed a strong buying programme and we have seen three consecutive months of buying (June – August 2023 purchases of 43 tonnes). However, because of the sales, cumulative Turkish official sector flows were negative (January – August 2023 sales of 70.5 tonnes). We suspect Turkey will be very active in replenishing its reserves. The People’s Bank of China has reported 10 consecutive months of gold purchases, amounting to 217 tonnes, over November 2022 – August 2023. Prior to this period, China had not reported any purchases since 2019.
Central banks’ demand for gold
Figure 3: Central bank gold demand
Markets are expecting Federal Reserve (Fed) policy interest rates to be ‘higher for longer’. In contrast to most rate cycles, when cuts start to come into play shortly after the last hike, bond markets are expecting a long pause at the top. That has driven 10-year nominal Treasury yields to the highest level since 2007 and real yields to their highest since 2008.
Gold, however, is holding its own, with the yellow metal continuing to defy the historic real yield-gold relationships.
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 30/01/1997 - 24/10/2023. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 30/01/1997 – 24/10/2023. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
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Normally in such periods of geopolitical uncertainty we would expect gold positioning to be higher, yet the latest reading shows positioning at the long-term average of 111k . Indeed, there are multiple signs of physical market strength, but institutional demand is lacking. Maybe it’s the allure of positive bond yields distorting institutional investor interest in gold. Also, the data on positioning is only available on a weekly basis and lagged by several days, so may not reflect actual positioning at the time of the price reading.
Figure 4: The impact of each variable: attribution of fitted results vs. actual price
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree price model, data as of 20 October 2023. The fitted gold price is the price the model would have forecast. The constant does not have economic meaning but is used in econometric modeling to capture other terms. It can be thought of as how much gold prices would change if all other variables were set to zero (although that would be unrealistic). Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
2
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If we look to WisdomTree’s quantitative gold model to see what has been driving gold prices recently, we can see that despite the bond sell-off, positive inflation and the US Dollar remaining weaker than a year ago (although appreciating in recent months) have both helped gold. With perfect hindsight, such as knowing all the macro inputs for September 2023, the model had accurately pinned down gold prices in that month. However, as of 20 October 2023, we are seeing gold prices look stronger than what our model would predict. We have assumed inflation in October of 3.7% and used spot prices for gold, US Treasuries and the US Dollar Index (DXY) as of 20 October and the last available futures positioning data (17 October). We believe most of the discrepancy is driven by relatively low futures positioning data.
Gold look-back
Our consensus scenario takes the Bloomberg Survey of Professional Economists’ average views on inflation, US Dollar and Treasury yield forecasts. Consensus is looking for inflation to continue declining (although remaining above central bank targets), the Dollar to depreciate, and bond yields to fall from one of the most elevated levels seen since 2007. Without a consensus forecast on gold sentiment, we reduce speculative positioning to a conservative 75k, which is below the long-term average of 111k since 1995. The risk is clearly to the upside this year if a recession or financial dislocation materialises or geopolitical tensions escalate. Gold is a highly sought-after asset in times of economic, financial and geopolitical stress, and these triggers could drive sentiment towards the metal even higher. In the consensus case scenario, gold reaches US$2,090/oz by Q3 2024, piercing through previous all-time nominal highs (US$2,061/oz on 7 August 2020). However, in real terms this does not reach an all-time high, which was reached in January 1980. In fact, it would be 40% below that level. And in real terms it is still 17% below the 2020 high.
In this scenario the Federal Reserve reacts to the recession warning signs and pivots away from its higher for longer mantra. If the US central bank signals it will begin monetary expansion in 2024 by end of 2023, bond yields will be falling and assuming it moves before the European Central Bank and other major central banks, we could see the US Dollar depreciate at a faster rate. If recession does materialise, we expect inflation will fall below target levels. Assuming that the recession fears that the Fed is responding to are real, we expect positioning in gold futures to remain elevated. In this scenario, gold could reach US$2,300/oz. That would be 12% higher than the all-time nominal high reached in August 2020, and about 7% below that in real terms. However, it would be 33% below the all-time real high reached in 1980.
In the bear case we maintain an inflation scenario in line with consensus but keep bond yields significantly higher for longer. Bond yields have surprised to the upside this year and this scenario is a thought experiment on what happens to gold if they remain elevated. Although we acknowledge that such a scenario increases recession risk and therefore could be gold-positive, drawing more investors to the yellow metal as a hedge, for the sake of building a negative scenario, we cut speculative positioning in gold futures down to 50k. In this scenario, gold could reach US$1,670/oz, retracing prices back to November 2022 levels.
Using the same model, we can produce gold forecasts consistent with several macroeconomic scenarios (Figure 5).
Gold outlook using WisdomTree’s forecast model
Source: WisdomTree. Bloomberg Survey of Professional Economists. October 2023. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties
Q3 2024
3.4%
Inflation forecast
3.1%
2.9%
2.6%
4.50%
Nominal 10-year yields forecast
4.33%
4.10%
3.90%
104.5
US$ exchange rate forecast (DXY)
103.1
101.3
100.0
75,000
Speculative positioning forecast
US$1,920/oz
Gold price forecast
US$2,050/oz
US$2,060/oz
US$2,090/oz
Source: WisdomTree. October 2023. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties
2.0%
1.0%
3.60%
3.40%
3.20%
3.00%
100
98
96
94
200,000
US$2,120/oz
US$2,190/oz
US$2,255/oz
US$2,300/oz
5.00%
106
107
108
110
50,000
US$1,825/oz
US$1,760/oz
US$1,700/oz
US$1,670/oz
Figure 5: Gold price forecasts
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close September 2023. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
If we look to WisdomTree’s quantitative gold model to see what has been driving gold prices recently, we can see that despite the bond sell-off, positive inflation and the US Dollar remaining weaker than a year ago (although appreciating in recent months) have both helped gold.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Quis commodo odio aenean sed adipiscing diam. Urna id volutpat lacus laoreet. Tellus at urna condimentum mattis pellentesque id nibh. Vitae tortor condimentum lacinia quis vel eros donec ac odio. Ut etiam sit amet nisl purus in mollis. Maecenas volutpat blandit aliquam etiam erat velit scelerisque in dictum. Et ultrices neque ornare aenean euismod elementum nisi quis eleifend. Nulla at volutpat diam ut venenatis tellus in metus vulputate. Aenean euismod elementum nisi quis eleifend quam adipiscing. Pretium vulputate sapien nec sagittis aliquam malesuada bibendum. Metus aliquam eleifend mi in nulla posuere sollicitudin. Amet justo donec enim diam. Vitae tortor condimentum lacinia quis vel eros donec ac odio. Nisl rhoncus mattis rhoncus urna neque. Ut faucibus pulvinar elementum integer enim neque. Amet volutpat consequat mauris nunc congue nisi vitae. Aenean euismod elementum nisi quis eleifend quam adipiscing vitae.
3
See our model described in Gold: how we value the precious metal The latest net speculative positioning data as of 17 October 2023, was 111k net long, which coincides with the long term average since 1995.
Our consensus scenario takes the Bloomberg Survey of Professional Economists’ average viewson inflation, US Dollar and Treasury yield forecasts. Consensus is looking for inflation tocontinue declining (although remaining above central bank targets), the dollar to depreciate,and bond yields to fall from one of the most elevated levels seen since 2007. Without a consensus forecast on gold sentiment, we reduce speculative positioning to aconservative 75k, which is below the long term average of 111k since 1995. The risk is clearly tothe upside this year if a recession or financial dislocation materialises, or geopolitical tensionsescalate. Gold is a highly sought after asset in times of economic, financial and geopoliticalstress, and these triggers could drive sentiment towards the metal even higher. In the consensus case scenario, gold reaches US$2,090/oz by Q3 2024, piercing through previousall time nominal highs (US$2,061/oz on 7 August 2020). However, in real terms this does notreach an all time high, which was reached in January 1980. In fact, it would be 40% below thatlevel. And in real terms it is still 17% below the 2020 high.
In this scenario the Federal Reserve reacts to the recession warning signs and pivots away fromits higher for longer mantra. If the US central bank signals it will begin monetary expansion in2024 by end of 2023, bond yields will be falling and assuming it moves before the European Central Bank and other major central banks, we could see the US Dollar depreciate at a fasterrate. If recession does materialise, we expect inflation will fall below target levels. Assuming thatthe recession fears that the Fed is responding to are real, we expect positioning in gold futures toremain elevated. In this scenario, gold could reach US$2,300/oz. That would be 12% higher than the alltimenominal high reached in August 2020, and about 7% below that in real terms. However, it wouldbe 33% below the all time real high reached in 1980.
In the bear case we maintain an inflation scenario in line with consensus but keep bond yieldssignificantly higher for longer. Bond yields have surprised to the upside this year and thisscenario is a thought experiment on what happens to gold if they remain elevated. Although weacknowledge that such a scenario increases recession risk and therefore could be gold positive,drawing more investors to the yellow metal as a hedge, for the sake of building a negativescenario, we cut speculative positioning in gold futures down to 50k. In this scenario, gold could reach US$1,670/oz, retracing prices back to November 2022 levels.
Important info
Marketing communications issued in the European Economic Area (“EEA”): This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree Ireland Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Marketing communications issued in jurisdictions outside of the EEA: This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. WisdomTree Ireland Limited and WisdomTree UK Limited are each referred to as “WisdomTree” (as applicable). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request. For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or shares. This document should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice. The application of regulations and tax laws can often lead to a number of different interpretations. Any views or opinions expressed in this communication represent the views of WisdomTree and should not be construed as regulatory, tax or legal advice. WisdomTree makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy of any of the views or opinions expressed in this communication. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Although WisdomTree endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this document, WisdomTree does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Where WisdomTree has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.
Using the same model, we can produce gold forecasts consistent with several macroeconomicscenarios (Figure 5).
Marketing communications issued in the European Economic Area (“EEA”): This documenthas been issued and approved by WisdomTree Ireland Limited, which is authorised andregulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Marketing communications issued in jurisdictions outside of the EEA: This document hasbeen issued and approved by WisdomTree UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by theUnited Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. WisdomTree Ireland Limited and WisdomTree UK Limited are each referred to as “WisdomTree”(as applicable). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request. For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for yourgeneral information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buysecurities or shares. This document should not be used as the basis for any investmentdecision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of theamount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Anydecision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriateprospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice. The application of regulations and tax laws can often lead toa number of differentinterpretations. Any views or opinions expressed in this communication represent theviews of WisdomTree and should not be construed as regulatory, tax or legal advice.WisdomTree makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy of any of the views oropinions expressed in this communication. Any decision to invest should be based on theinformation contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independentinvestment, tax and legal advice. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement orany other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States orany province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken,transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Although WisdomTree endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this document,WisdomTree does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Where WisdomTree hasexpressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change.Neither WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, oremployees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from anyuse of this document or its contents.
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Source: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Suscipit tellus mauris a diam maecenas sed enim. Amet porttitor eget dolor morbi non arcu risus quis varius. Sit amet est placerat in egestas erat. Tortor id aliquet lectus proin nibh. In dictum non consectetur a erat nam. Sit amet est placerat in id aliquet risus feugiat in ante metus dictum. Malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Velit egestas dui id ornare arcu. Nibh cras pulvinar mattis nunc. Et ligula ullamcorper malesuada proin. Commodo odio aenean sed adipiscing diam donec adipiscing tristique. Rhoncus urna neque viverra justo nec ultrices. Tincidunt id aliquet risus.
